Kelly, Shapiro Best Odds to Be Kamala Harris’ VP Choice
Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro currently have the best odds at sportsbooks to be picked as Kamala Harris’ VP running mate. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Kamala Harris is moving fast
Now that President Joe Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee is current US Vice President Kamala Harris. Upon announcing he was no longer seeking another term, Biden endorsed his second in command. Within 24 hours, she had already gained the support of enough delegates to stave off any serious would-be challengers.
barring a bigger stunner than Biden withdrawing, she will be the party’s nominee
Harris still needs to be officially nominated at the Democratic National Convention in August, but barring a bigger stunner than Biden withdrawing, she will be the party’s nominee. The next step, of course, is for her to choose a running mate.
The lists of potential candidates floating around the politisphere run the gamut from likely choices to fantasy selections. Right now, bookmakers have five to six people as the most realistic options to team up with Kamala Harris against Donald Trump and JD Vance, led by Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Clear front runners
At sites that offer political futures betting, the odds for the VP picks are generally consistent across the board. The favorite is currently Kelly, listed at +150 on bet365 and +110 at BetUS. Shapiro is next at +300 on both sites.
On PredictIt, a betting exchange where bettors can buy shares in a possible candidate like one would do with stocks, it’s a closer race: Kelly’s price is $0.32 as of this writing, while Shapiro is at $0.20. For comparison, +150 equals an implied probability of 40% and +300 is 25%.
On PredictIt, if the outcome you bet on turns out to be a winner, you are paid $1 for each share you own, minus site fees. If your bet loses, you get nothing. Shares in outcomes can also be bought and sold as prices fluctuate, like on the stock market. Because prices are set by the market, they reflect what the betting public thinks will happen and can fluctuate continuously.
The top six Democratic vice presidential contenders according to sportsbooks are as follows (odds are bet365/BetUS)
Mark Kelly +150/+100
Josh Shapiro +300/+300
Roy Cooper +333/+400
Pete Buttigieg +650/+800
Andy Beshear +800/+800
Tim Walz +1,600/+1,400
Cooper, Beshear, and Walz are all current state governors, while Buttigieg is the US Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. PredictIt ranks the above men in the same order.
Let’s not elect another celebrity
While those are the top six possible running mates for Kamala Harris, at least according to sportsbooks, there are odds on others. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker all have their supporters and are believed to have grander future political ambitions, but are not believed to be serious candidates for VP anymore (Whitmer has specifically stated that she wants to stay in Michigan). bet365 has them all at +5,000.
fantasy picks among “establishment” Democratic voters
The two most recent former First Ladies, Hillary Clinton (who lost the presidential election to Donald Trump in 2016) and Michelle Obama, are both at +2,500 on bet365, and +3,500 and +3,000 on BetUS, respectively. They are more unrealistic than the above-listed governors, but are sort of fantasy picks among “establishment” Democratic voters.
And then there are some head-scratchers who have got to be on the sportsbooks’ lists just to take easy money from bettors. BetOnline has former Dallas Mavericks owner and “Shark Tank” star Mark Cuban at +6,600, the same odds it lists for J.B. Pritzker. It has actor George Clooney at +10,000, media maven Oprah Winfrey at +25,000, and former University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban also at +25,000.
